Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Reuters: Economic News: Fed's Fisher: weak jobs data doesn't change outlook

Reuters: Economic News
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Fed's Fisher: weak jobs data doesn't change outlook
Apr 10th 2012, 18:12

By Ann Saphir

NORMAN, Oklahoma | Tue Apr 10, 2012 2:12pm EDT

NORMAN, Oklahoma (Reuters) - Friday's weak jobs report does not change the outlook for the economy, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher told reporters on Tuesday after a speech at the University of Oklahoma's Price College of Business.

"It means I'm going to be more watchful," Fisher said, referring to the report, which showed U.S. businesses added far fewer jobs than expected in March. But, he added, it takes a much broader range of data to shape his thinking on monetary policy.

"You don't make decisions based on one data point," he said.

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Reuters: Economic News: Global growth worries push yields to 4-week lows

Reuters: Economic News
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Global growth worries push yields to 4-week lows
Apr 10th 2012, 15:59

By Chris Reese

NEW YORK | Tue Apr 10, 2012 11:59am EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices rose on Tuesday, pushing benchmark yields below 2 percent for the first time in over four weeks as worries about the pace of global economic growth bolstered demand for safe-haven U.S. government debt.

Adding to the bullish impact on Treasuries from Friday's weak U.S. employment report for March were growth concerns in the euro zone, with Spain taking center stage in the region's debt crisis.

As European markets reopened after the Easter break, German Bund yields hit their lowest since September and Italian and Spanish bond yields continued their march higher after sentiment towards those two countries soured following a weak Spanish bond sale last week.

"The bad news on (U.S.) employment brought about more doubt about the global recovery and how vulnerable we are to the double-dip (recession)," said William Larkin, fixed income portfolio manager at Cabot Money Management in Salem, Massachusetts.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes were trading 18/32 higher in price to yield 1.986 percent, marking the lowest since March 8 and down from 2.05 percent late Monday.

Benchmark yields were still being impacted by March U.S. jobs growth that came in well below expectations last week, casting doubt over the strength of the U.S. economic recovery.

Before the jobs data, market participants had interpreted recent comments from Fed policy-makers and improved data to mean the bar for further monetary stimulus was extremely high.

However, a Reuters poll on Monday showed most major Wall Street firms expect anemic growth in the U.S. jobs market and a struggling economic recovery to force the Federal Reserve to undertake another round of monetary stimulus, most likely to be announced in June.

The Federal Reserve bought $1.843 billion of longer-dated Treasuries on Tuesday morning, and was scheduled to buy a further $4.25 billion to $5 billion of longer-dated Treasuries on Tuesday afternoon.

The purchases are part of the central bank's latest stimulus program, which has been nicknamed "Operation Twist." Under Twist, the Fed is selling shorter-dated holdings and buying longer-dated debt to extend the maturity of its portfolio. The program is scheduled to last through June.

While the Fed is buying, the U.S. Treasury will sell $32 billion of three-year notes on Tuesday afternoon, then $21 billion of reopened 10-year notes Wednesday and $13 billion of reopened 30-year bonds on Thursday.

Ahead of Tuesday's auction, three-year notes were trading 3/32 higher in price to yield 0.42 percent, down from 0.45 percent late Monday. In the when-issued market, considered a proxy for where the yield might come in at auction, three-year notes were trading with a yield of 0.43 percent.

(Editing by James Dalgleish)

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Reuters: Economic News: White House highlights tax fairness ahead of Obama speech

Reuters: Economic News
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White House highlights tax fairness ahead of Obama speech
Apr 10th 2012, 10:28

U.S. President Barack Obama is pictured during remarks to the press in the briefing room of the White House in Washington December 20, 2011.

Credit: Reuters/Jason Reed

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Reuters: Economic News: Obama healthcare law could sharply worsen U.S. deficits: study

Reuters: Economic News
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Obama healthcare law could sharply worsen U.S. deficits: study
Apr 10th 2012, 06:03

WASHINGTON | Tue Apr 10, 2012 2:03am EDT

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama's healthcare law could sharply exceed its cost-savings targets and add up to $530 billion to the federal budget deficit, a leading authority on U.S. government benefit programs said on Tuesday.

A study by Charles Blahous, a George Mason University research fellow and the Republican trustee for the Medicare and Social Security entitlement programs for the elderly, challenges the administration's contention that the 2010 law would better keep healthcare costs in line.

Known as the "Affordable Care Act," or "Obamacare," the measure to expand health insurance for millions of Americans is considered Obama's signature domestic policy achievement.

The Supreme Court is currently weighing whether Congress overstepped its authority to regulate commerce in approving the law. The justices heard arguments in the high-stakes case two weeks ago.

Republican presidential candidates have promised to repeal the law if one of them wins the White House in the November election. Conservatives denounce the standard as an unwarranted government intrusion.

A White House official could not immediately be reached for comment.

Obama and the Democrats believe the law will control skyrocketing costs and curtail government "red ink."

But Blahous, a former economic adviser in the George W. Bush White House, said in his research that the law is expected to boost net federal spending by more than $1.15 trillion and add between $340 billion and $530 billion to deficits between 2012-21.

"Relative to previous law, the (healthcare law) both exacerbates projected federal deficits and increases an already unsustainable federal commitment to health care spending," he concluded.

The analysis, first reported by the Washington Post late on Monday, also comes a month after the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) cut the estimated net cost of the healthcare law by $48 billion to $1.08 trillion through 2021.

(Reporting by John Crawley; Editing by Lisa Shumaker and Paul Simao)

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Monday, April 9, 2012

Reuters: Economic News: China swings to surprise trade surplus in March

Reuters: Economic News
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China swings to surprise trade surplus in March
Apr 10th 2012, 03:55

BEIJING | Mon Apr 9, 2012 11:55pm EDT

BEIJING (Reuters) - China swung to a surprise trade surplus of $5.35 billion in March as exports grew faster than expected and import growth eased from a 13-month peak, customs data showed on Tuesday.

Import and export growth were both down sharply from February's Lunar New Year distorted surge, and within sight of the government's target of 10 percent expansion for 2012.

The data reinforced the view of most analysts that China's trade-sensitive economy is set for a soft landing, with GDP growth likely to have eased for a fifth successive quarter to 8.3 percent in the first three months of 2012 and remaining on course for its slowest year of expansion in a decade.

"The trade data looks okay... it shows the global economy is recovering, albeit slowly," said Zhou Hao, an economist with ANZ Bank in shanghai.

"Given that China had a trade surplus in the first quarter versus a deficit in the Q1 last year, it indicates a positive contribution to GDP growth. We reckon Q1 GDP growth should be 8.6 percent. I think the market is a bit too pessimistic about China's economy."

Import growth of 5.3 percent in March compared with economists' expectations of 9.0 percent and February's 39.6 percent growth, while export growth of 8.9 percent compared with a consensus call for 7.2 percent, still a marked easing from February's 18.4 percent rate.

The two numbers left the overall trade balance in surplus, reversing February's $31.5 billion run of red ink on the balance of payments and confounding market expectations of a $1.3 billion deficit.

But despite the unexpected return to surplus, the relatively slack pace of export growth may still concern investors who believe the risks of recession in the debt-ridden European Union -- China's top export market -- could be a dangerous drag on growth in the world's number 2 economy.

March data provided the first hard economic numbers of the year not distorted by the impact of the Lunar New Year holiday that fell in January this year, causing considerable skew in comparisons with the February 2011 holiday.

China's data releases build to a crescendo through the week with first quarter GDP numbers expected to be published on Friday and forecast to show the slowest quarter of growth in nearly three years.

Inflation data published on Monday kept the government on stand-by to deliver more growth-oriented policies, with a trend of easing consumer costs in the first quarter confirmed while producer prices revealed risks to the industrial sector recovery.

The People's Bank of China has cut the proportion of deposits banks must keep as reserves by 100 basis points in two moves since autumn 2011 in a bid to keep credit growing in the face of a recent slowdown of foreign capital inflows, which had underpinned money supply growth for much of the last decade.

(Reporting by Nick Edwards; Editing by Alex Richardson)

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Reuters: Economic News: Bernanke says banks need bigger capital buffer

Reuters: Economic News
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Bernanke says banks need bigger capital buffer
Apr 10th 2012, 01:03

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke pauses as he gives a lecture on the 2008 global financial crisis in a classroom at George Washington University School of Business in Washington, March 29, 2012. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst

1 of 2. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke pauses as he gives a lecture on the 2008 global financial crisis in a classroom at George Washington University School of Business in Washington, March 29, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Jonathan Ernst

By Pedro Nicolaci da Costa

STONE MOUNTAIN, Georgia | Mon Apr 9, 2012 9:36pm EDT

STONE MOUNTAIN, Georgia (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Monday banks need to have more capital at hand in order to ensure the financial system is stable.

Bernanke said regulators were taking steps to force financial institutions to hold higher capital buffers, even if they allow for a long period of implementation to prevent any market disruptions.

"We need to have higher capital, and that's what Basel III does," he said in response to questions at an Atlanta Fed conference, referring to the latest international effort to tighten bank oversight. "That's essential for a stable financial system."

Bernanke made the comments the same day that an international bank lobby group, the Institute of International Finance, urged policymakers to pause in regulating the industry.

Toughened capital standards, new liquidity requirements and rules that limit activities all restrict banks' ability to provide businesses and households with the credit needed to lift economic growth, the IIF said in a letter to central bankers and finance ministers.

Whether big banks have sufficient levels of capital to protect against possible losses has been an ongoing source of contention. A call by the head of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, last year for European banks to raise up to 200 billion euros in new capital was quickly rejected by European politicians.

In his prepared remarks on Monday, Bernanke said the U.S. economy has yet to fully recover from the effects of the financial crisis, and regulators must continue to find new ways to strengthen the banking system.

"The heavy human and economic costs of the crisis underscore the importance of taking all necessary steps to avoid a repeat of the events of the past few years," Bernanke said.

In a speech that did not touch directly on the outlook for economic growth or monetary policy, Bernanke focused on the lingering blind spots for financial authorities trying to prevent a repeat of the 2008-2009 meltdown.

He said financial stability matters had historically played second fiddle to monetary policy issues in the list of central bank priorities, but the crisis changed that.

"Financial stability policy has taken on greater prominence and is now generally considered to stand on an equal footing with monetary policy as a critical responsibility of central banks," he said.

Bernanke said recent bank stress tests will become a regular feature of the supervisory landscape, and for that reason the latest round of tests is being reviewed to identify possible areas of improvement in "execution and communication."

He reiterated a worry that he and other top policymakers have expressed about the continued vulnerability of money market funds.

"Additional steps to increase the resiliency of money market funds are important for the overall stability of our financial system and warrant serious consideration," Bernanke said.

"The risk of runs ... remains a concern, particularly since some of the tools that policymakers employed to stem the runs during the crisis are no longer available," he said.

(Reporting By Pedro da Costa; Editing by Leslie Adler)

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Reuters: Economic News: Bernanke says financial stability a work in progress

Reuters: Economic News
Reuters.com is your source for breaking news, business, financial and investing news, including personal finance and stocks. Reuters is the leading global provider of news, financial information and technology solutions to the world's media, financial institutions, businesses and individuals. // via fulltextrssfeed.com
Bernanke says financial stability a work in progress
Apr 9th 2012, 23:24

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke pauses as he gives a lecture on the 2008 global financial crisis in a classroom at George Washington University School of Business in Washington, March 29, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Jonathan Ernst

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