Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Reuters: Economic News: Fed's Fisher: weak jobs data doesn't change outlook

Reuters: Economic News
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Fed's Fisher: weak jobs data doesn't change outlook
Apr 10th 2012, 18:12

By Ann Saphir

NORMAN, Oklahoma | Tue Apr 10, 2012 2:12pm EDT

NORMAN, Oklahoma (Reuters) - Friday's weak jobs report does not change the outlook for the economy, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher told reporters on Tuesday after a speech at the University of Oklahoma's Price College of Business.

"It means I'm going to be more watchful," Fisher said, referring to the report, which showed U.S. businesses added far fewer jobs than expected in March. But, he added, it takes a much broader range of data to shape his thinking on monetary policy.

"You don't make decisions based on one data point," he said.

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Reuters: Economic News: Global growth worries push yields to 4-week lows

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Global growth worries push yields to 4-week lows
Apr 10th 2012, 15:59

By Chris Reese

NEW YORK | Tue Apr 10, 2012 11:59am EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices rose on Tuesday, pushing benchmark yields below 2 percent for the first time in over four weeks as worries about the pace of global economic growth bolstered demand for safe-haven U.S. government debt.

Adding to the bullish impact on Treasuries from Friday's weak U.S. employment report for March were growth concerns in the euro zone, with Spain taking center stage in the region's debt crisis.

As European markets reopened after the Easter break, German Bund yields hit their lowest since September and Italian and Spanish bond yields continued their march higher after sentiment towards those two countries soured following a weak Spanish bond sale last week.

"The bad news on (U.S.) employment brought about more doubt about the global recovery and how vulnerable we are to the double-dip (recession)," said William Larkin, fixed income portfolio manager at Cabot Money Management in Salem, Massachusetts.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes were trading 18/32 higher in price to yield 1.986 percent, marking the lowest since March 8 and down from 2.05 percent late Monday.

Benchmark yields were still being impacted by March U.S. jobs growth that came in well below expectations last week, casting doubt over the strength of the U.S. economic recovery.

Before the jobs data, market participants had interpreted recent comments from Fed policy-makers and improved data to mean the bar for further monetary stimulus was extremely high.

However, a Reuters poll on Monday showed most major Wall Street firms expect anemic growth in the U.S. jobs market and a struggling economic recovery to force the Federal Reserve to undertake another round of monetary stimulus, most likely to be announced in June.

The Federal Reserve bought $1.843 billion of longer-dated Treasuries on Tuesday morning, and was scheduled to buy a further $4.25 billion to $5 billion of longer-dated Treasuries on Tuesday afternoon.

The purchases are part of the central bank's latest stimulus program, which has been nicknamed "Operation Twist." Under Twist, the Fed is selling shorter-dated holdings and buying longer-dated debt to extend the maturity of its portfolio. The program is scheduled to last through June.

While the Fed is buying, the U.S. Treasury will sell $32 billion of three-year notes on Tuesday afternoon, then $21 billion of reopened 10-year notes Wednesday and $13 billion of reopened 30-year bonds on Thursday.

Ahead of Tuesday's auction, three-year notes were trading 3/32 higher in price to yield 0.42 percent, down from 0.45 percent late Monday. In the when-issued market, considered a proxy for where the yield might come in at auction, three-year notes were trading with a yield of 0.43 percent.

(Editing by James Dalgleish)

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Reuters: Economic News: White House highlights tax fairness ahead of Obama speech

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White House highlights tax fairness ahead of Obama speech
Apr 10th 2012, 10:28

U.S. President Barack Obama is pictured during remarks to the press in the briefing room of the White House in Washington December 20, 2011.

Credit: Reuters/Jason Reed

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Reuters: Economic News: Obama healthcare law could sharply worsen U.S. deficits: study

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Obama healthcare law could sharply worsen U.S. deficits: study
Apr 10th 2012, 06:03

WASHINGTON | Tue Apr 10, 2012 2:03am EDT

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama's healthcare law could sharply exceed its cost-savings targets and add up to $530 billion to the federal budget deficit, a leading authority on U.S. government benefit programs said on Tuesday.

A study by Charles Blahous, a George Mason University research fellow and the Republican trustee for the Medicare and Social Security entitlement programs for the elderly, challenges the administration's contention that the 2010 law would better keep healthcare costs in line.

Known as the "Affordable Care Act," or "Obamacare," the measure to expand health insurance for millions of Americans is considered Obama's signature domestic policy achievement.

The Supreme Court is currently weighing whether Congress overstepped its authority to regulate commerce in approving the law. The justices heard arguments in the high-stakes case two weeks ago.

Republican presidential candidates have promised to repeal the law if one of them wins the White House in the November election. Conservatives denounce the standard as an unwarranted government intrusion.

A White House official could not immediately be reached for comment.

Obama and the Democrats believe the law will control skyrocketing costs and curtail government "red ink."

But Blahous, a former economic adviser in the George W. Bush White House, said in his research that the law is expected to boost net federal spending by more than $1.15 trillion and add between $340 billion and $530 billion to deficits between 2012-21.

"Relative to previous law, the (healthcare law) both exacerbates projected federal deficits and increases an already unsustainable federal commitment to health care spending," he concluded.

The analysis, first reported by the Washington Post late on Monday, also comes a month after the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) cut the estimated net cost of the healthcare law by $48 billion to $1.08 trillion through 2021.

(Reporting by John Crawley; Editing by Lisa Shumaker and Paul Simao)

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Monday, April 9, 2012

Reuters: Economic News: China swings to surprise trade surplus in March

Reuters: Economic News
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China swings to surprise trade surplus in March
Apr 10th 2012, 03:55

BEIJING | Mon Apr 9, 2012 11:55pm EDT

BEIJING (Reuters) - China swung to a surprise trade surplus of $5.35 billion in March as exports grew faster than expected and import growth eased from a 13-month peak, customs data showed on Tuesday.

Import and export growth were both down sharply from February's Lunar New Year distorted surge, and within sight of the government's target of 10 percent expansion for 2012.

The data reinforced the view of most analysts that China's trade-sensitive economy is set for a soft landing, with GDP growth likely to have eased for a fifth successive quarter to 8.3 percent in the first three months of 2012 and remaining on course for its slowest year of expansion in a decade.

"The trade data looks okay... it shows the global economy is recovering, albeit slowly," said Zhou Hao, an economist with ANZ Bank in shanghai.

"Given that China had a trade surplus in the first quarter versus a deficit in the Q1 last year, it indicates a positive contribution to GDP growth. We reckon Q1 GDP growth should be 8.6 percent. I think the market is a bit too pessimistic about China's economy."

Import growth of 5.3 percent in March compared with economists' expectations of 9.0 percent and February's 39.6 percent growth, while export growth of 8.9 percent compared with a consensus call for 7.2 percent, still a marked easing from February's 18.4 percent rate.

The two numbers left the overall trade balance in surplus, reversing February's $31.5 billion run of red ink on the balance of payments and confounding market expectations of a $1.3 billion deficit.

But despite the unexpected return to surplus, the relatively slack pace of export growth may still concern investors who believe the risks of recession in the debt-ridden European Union -- China's top export market -- could be a dangerous drag on growth in the world's number 2 economy.

March data provided the first hard economic numbers of the year not distorted by the impact of the Lunar New Year holiday that fell in January this year, causing considerable skew in comparisons with the February 2011 holiday.

China's data releases build to a crescendo through the week with first quarter GDP numbers expected to be published on Friday and forecast to show the slowest quarter of growth in nearly three years.

Inflation data published on Monday kept the government on stand-by to deliver more growth-oriented policies, with a trend of easing consumer costs in the first quarter confirmed while producer prices revealed risks to the industrial sector recovery.

The People's Bank of China has cut the proportion of deposits banks must keep as reserves by 100 basis points in two moves since autumn 2011 in a bid to keep credit growing in the face of a recent slowdown of foreign capital inflows, which had underpinned money supply growth for much of the last decade.

(Reporting by Nick Edwards; Editing by Alex Richardson)

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Reuters: Economic News: Bernanke says banks need bigger capital buffer

Reuters: Economic News
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Bernanke says banks need bigger capital buffer
Apr 10th 2012, 01:03

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke pauses as he gives a lecture on the 2008 global financial crisis in a classroom at George Washington University School of Business in Washington, March 29, 2012. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst

1 of 2. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke pauses as he gives a lecture on the 2008 global financial crisis in a classroom at George Washington University School of Business in Washington, March 29, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Jonathan Ernst

By Pedro Nicolaci da Costa

STONE MOUNTAIN, Georgia | Mon Apr 9, 2012 9:36pm EDT

STONE MOUNTAIN, Georgia (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Monday banks need to have more capital at hand in order to ensure the financial system is stable.

Bernanke said regulators were taking steps to force financial institutions to hold higher capital buffers, even if they allow for a long period of implementation to prevent any market disruptions.

"We need to have higher capital, and that's what Basel III does," he said in response to questions at an Atlanta Fed conference, referring to the latest international effort to tighten bank oversight. "That's essential for a stable financial system."

Bernanke made the comments the same day that an international bank lobby group, the Institute of International Finance, urged policymakers to pause in regulating the industry.

Toughened capital standards, new liquidity requirements and rules that limit activities all restrict banks' ability to provide businesses and households with the credit needed to lift economic growth, the IIF said in a letter to central bankers and finance ministers.

Whether big banks have sufficient levels of capital to protect against possible losses has been an ongoing source of contention. A call by the head of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, last year for European banks to raise up to 200 billion euros in new capital was quickly rejected by European politicians.

In his prepared remarks on Monday, Bernanke said the U.S. economy has yet to fully recover from the effects of the financial crisis, and regulators must continue to find new ways to strengthen the banking system.

"The heavy human and economic costs of the crisis underscore the importance of taking all necessary steps to avoid a repeat of the events of the past few years," Bernanke said.

In a speech that did not touch directly on the outlook for economic growth or monetary policy, Bernanke focused on the lingering blind spots for financial authorities trying to prevent a repeat of the 2008-2009 meltdown.

He said financial stability matters had historically played second fiddle to monetary policy issues in the list of central bank priorities, but the crisis changed that.

"Financial stability policy has taken on greater prominence and is now generally considered to stand on an equal footing with monetary policy as a critical responsibility of central banks," he said.

Bernanke said recent bank stress tests will become a regular feature of the supervisory landscape, and for that reason the latest round of tests is being reviewed to identify possible areas of improvement in "execution and communication."

He reiterated a worry that he and other top policymakers have expressed about the continued vulnerability of money market funds.

"Additional steps to increase the resiliency of money market funds are important for the overall stability of our financial system and warrant serious consideration," Bernanke said.

"The risk of runs ... remains a concern, particularly since some of the tools that policymakers employed to stem the runs during the crisis are no longer available," he said.

(Reporting By Pedro da Costa; Editing by Leslie Adler)

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Reuters: Economic News: Bernanke says financial stability a work in progress

Reuters: Economic News
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Bernanke says financial stability a work in progress
Apr 9th 2012, 23:24

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke pauses as he gives a lecture on the 2008 global financial crisis in a classroom at George Washington University School of Business in Washington, March 29, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Jonathan Ernst

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Reuters: Economic News: Analysis: How low can U.S. jobless rate really fall?

Reuters: Economic News
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Analysis: How low can U.S. jobless rate really fall?
Apr 9th 2012, 14:37

A man looking for work stands next to a bag of tools at a street corner in Brooklyn, New York on April 3, 2012. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz

1 of 5. A man looking for work stands next to a bag of tools at a street corner in Brooklyn, New York on April 3, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Eduardo Munoz

By Jonathan Spicer and Lucia Mutikani

NEW YORK/WASHINGTON | Mon Apr 9, 2012 10:37am EDT

NEW YORK/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Gary Feeman has been searching for a job for 16 months. He's not ready to give up just yet, but the 60-year-old worries he is running out of options.

Feeman is among the more than 5 million Americans who have been out of work for more than six months and who represent the heart of the crisis in the labor market.

Their plight also poses a warning that U.S. unemployment may not drop back to its pre-recession levels and could be stuck higher than many policymakers expect.

Feeman, from Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, has sent out as many as 100 resumes. But the former maintenance director at a small amusement park in the area, has had only one interview in person. That was in January.

"I have tried everything under the sun," he said. "The frustrating thing to me is that when you apply for a job, employers do not respond either way."

One of the biggest challenges facing U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues is to understand whether people like Feeman will eventually find work once the economy gathers enough speed.

Bernanke appears to think they will and he has suggested more stimulus by the Fed might be needed to kick-start demand, and job creation, into a higher gear.

But if he's wrong, the central bank risks pumping too much money into the economy in an effort to help people who have become unemployable. Rather than bringing down the jobless rate, the Fed could eventually fuel higher inflation.

"We're living through a juncture in U.S. policy history in which we're making major decisions about what type of society we're likely to be," said Steven Davis, an economist at the University of Chicago. "Those decisions will affect things for a generation."

Some 40 percent of the nation's unemployed have been out of work for more than six months. That's over twice the rate of long-term unemployment just before the 2007-2009 recession.

Bernanke mostly pins long-term joblessness on weak demand from American consumers and companies. In late March, he pointed to data showing that, compared to before the recession, the short-term unemployed also are taking much longer to find work.

This, he argued, justifies the Fed's policy of keeping interest rates low to help the economy. Persistent long-term unemployment is a risk because it might someday make people unemployable, he said.

"If progress in reducing unemployment is too slow, the long-term unemployed will see their skills and labor force attachment atrophy further, possibly converting a cyclical problem into a structural one," Bernanke told a conference of economists.

Long-term unemployment has other costs for the economy. A paper for the Brookings Institution, a Washington think-tank, finds that men who lose their job when the unemployment rate is above 8 percent forfeit twice as much in future earnings than if had they lost their job when the rate was below 6 percent.

Still, a number of private economists argue there are signs the structural unemployment problem is already larger than Bernanke would acknowledge.

WALL STREET MORE GLOOMY THAN THE FED

Most Fed policymakers think the jobless rate could fall to somewhere between 5.2 and 6 percent before the economy heats up enough to fuel inflation. That's a higher "natural" unemployment rate than the roughly 5 percent rate estimated by most Fed policymakers three years ago.

Many private sector economists have shifted their estimate of the natural rate even higher. Credit Suisse pegs it at around 6.5 percent, and UBS at near 7 percent.

"If that is the case the Fed will run out of effectiveness much sooner than they realize," said Adolfo Laurenti, deputy chief economist at Mesirow Financial, in Chicago. He estimates the natural rate at between 6.5 and 7 percent.

Some economists see signs of an increase in the natural jobless rate in the widespread mismatch between job openings and the qualifications of those seeking work.

<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

The Beveridge Curve is used by economists to measure the relationship between job openings and unemployment: r.reuters.com/cam53s

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>

In U.S. manufacturing, for example, more than 600,000 jobs are unfilled because of a lack of skilled applicants, according to a study by Deloitte and the Manufacturing Institute.

Many of the companies that are hiring are turning increasingly to younger workers with more up-to-date skills training, rather than taking a chance on people who have been out of work for a long time.

In Kentucky, a construction firm responded to the recession like most of its rivals: from 2008 to 2010, Gray Construction cut 51 of its total of 245 employees. As signs of growth returned to the economy, it started hiring again, with a focus on college graduates with specialized degrees.

"There has to be a very compelling reason to take somebody who was not in the industry, who has changed over to the industry, versus somebody who graduated with an engineering degree or construction management degree," said president and chief executive Stephen Gray.

Another possible source of a run-up in the natural jobless rate is that firms are relying more and more on automation technology. Workers untrained in using that technology could struggle to get jobs.

Some economists think long-term unemployment is also kept high because many workers can't move to find work because they owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth.

"I don't think people have fully appreciated how deep the hole is," said Michael Greenstone, an economist at MIT university and former chief economist at the White House's Council of Economic Advisers. "The Great Recession is going to be living in our collective homes for many more years to come."

The Fed has bought $2.3 trillion in securities and kept interest rates near zero for over three years to aid the economy and fight the sharpest jump in unemployment since World War Two.

So far it has helped to bring the jobless rate down from 10 percent in 2009 to 8.2 percent in March, although many of the unemployed have become so demoralized that they have left the formal labor force.

If some economists are right to believe the natural unemployment rate is as high as 7 percent, then the Fed could hit a wall before long and need to tighten monetary policy.

Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota - one of the policymakers at the Fed who suggests rates will have to rise sooner than later - thinks last year's rise in inflation was a sign the Fed is approaching that wall.

"There's a point at which it gets to be very costly in terms of how much inflation you'd have to generate in order to get a reduction in unemployment," Kocherlakota said last month.

Such predictions are grim for construction workers like Mfthel, 36, who most days sits on a plastic crate at an intersection in Brooklyn, New York, waiting for casual work - as he has done most days since the recession hammered his industry.

Mfthel, who declined to give his family name, and some of the other dozen men waiting on the street corner with tools and steel-toe boots said they had permanent jobs before the construction boom ended. Now they can expect $7 to $10 an hour for repairing buildings, moving furniture and paving driveways.

"Now they don't come or they don't pay enough," he said. "You can't do much with 20 bucks."

(Additional reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Frances Kerry)

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Sunday, April 8, 2012

Reuters: Economic News: Analysis: How low can U.S. jobless rate really fall?

Reuters: Economic News
Reuters.com is your source for breaking news, business, financial and investing news, including personal finance and stocks. Reuters is the leading global provider of news, financial information and technology solutions to the world's media, financial institutions, businesses and individuals. // via fulltextrssfeed.com
Analysis: How low can U.S. jobless rate really fall?
Apr 8th 2012, 15:13

By Jonathan Spicer and Lucia Mutikani

NEW YORK/WASHINGTON | Sun Apr 8, 2012 11:13am EDT

NEW YORK/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Gary Feeman has been searching for a job for 16 months. He's not ready to give up just yet, but the 60-year-old worries he is running out of options.

Feeman is among the more than 5 million Americans who have been out of work for more than six months and who represent the heart of the crisis in the labor market.

Their plight also poses a warning that U.S. unemployment may not drop back to its pre-recession levels and could be stuck higher than many policymakers expect.

Feeman, from Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, has sent out as many as 100 resumes. But the former maintenance director at a small amusement park in the area, has had only one interview in person. That was in January.

"I have tried everything under the sun," he said. "The frustrating thing to me is that when you apply for a job, employers do not respond either way."

One of the biggest challenges facing U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues is to understand whether people like Feeman will eventually find work once the economy gathers enough speed.

Bernanke appears to think they will and he has suggested more stimulus by the Fed might be needed to kick-start demand, and job creation, into a higher gear.

But if he's wrong, the central bank risks pumping too much money into the economy in an effort to help people who have become unemployable. Rather than bringing down the jobless rate, the Fed could eventually fuel higher inflation.

"We're living through a juncture in U.S. policy history in which we're making major decisions about what type of society we're likely to be," said Steven Davis, an economist at the University of Chicago. "Those decisions will affect things for a generation."

Some 40 percent of the nation's unemployed have been out of work for more than six months. That's over twice the rate of long-term unemployment just before the 2007-2009 recession.

Bernanke mostly pins long-term joblessness on weak demand from American consumers and companies. In late March, he pointed to data showing that, compared to before the recession, the short-term unemployed also are taking much longer to find work.

This, he argued, justifies the Fed's policy of keeping interest rates low to help the economy. Persistent long-term unemployment is a risk because it might someday make people unemployable, he said.

"If progress in reducing unemployment is too slow, the long-term unemployed will see their skills and labor force attachment atrophy further, possibly converting a cyclical problem into a structural one," Bernanke told a conference of economists.

Long-term unemployment has other costs for the economy. A paper for the Brookings Institution, a Washington think-tank, finds that men who lose their job when the unemployment rate is above 8 percent forfeit twice as much in future earnings than if had they lost their job when the rate was below 6 percent.

Still, a number of private economists argue there are signs the structural unemployment problem is already larger than Bernanke would acknowledge.

WALL STREET MORE GLOOMY THAN THE FED

Most Fed policymakers think the jobless rate could fall to somewhere between 5.2 and 6 percent before the economy heats up enough to fuel inflation. That's a higher "natural" unemployment rate than the roughly 5 percent rate estimated by most Fed policymakers three years ago.

Many private sector economists have shifted their estimate of the natural rate even higher. Credit Suisse pegs it at around 6.5 percent, and UBS at near 7 percent.

"If that is the case the Fed will run out of effectiveness much sooner than they realize," said Adolfo Laurenti, deputy chief economist at Mesirow Financial, in Chicago. He estimates the natural rate at between 6.5 and 7 percent.

Some economists see signs of an increase in the natural jobless rate in the widespread mismatch between job openings and the qualifications of those seeking work.

In U.S. manufacturing, for example, more than 600,000 jobs are unfilled because of a lack of skilled applicants, according to a study by Deloitte and the Manufacturing Institute.

Many of the companies that are hiring are turning increasingly to younger workers with more up-to-date skills training, rather than taking a chance on people who have been out of work for a long time.

In Kentucky, a construction firm responded to the recession like most of its rivals: from 2008 to 2010, Gray Construction cut 51 of its total of 245 employees. As signs of growth returned to the economy, it started hiring again, with a focus on college graduates with specialized degrees.

"There has to be a very compelling reason to take somebody who was not in the industry, who has changed over to the industry, versus somebody who graduated with an engineering degree or construction management degree," said president and chief executive Stephen Gray.

Another possible source of a run-up in the natural jobless rate is that firms are relying more and more on automation technology. Workers untrained in using that technology could struggle to get jobs.

Some economists think long-term unemployment is also kept high because many workers can't move to find work because they owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth.

"I don't think people have fully appreciated how deep the hole is," said Michael Greenstone, an economist at MIT university and former chief economist at the White House's Council of Economic Advisers. "The Great Recession is going to be living in our collective homes for many more years to come."

The Fed has bought $2.3 trillion in securities and kept interest rates near zero for over three years to aid the economy and fight the sharpest jump in unemployment since World War Two.

So far it has helped to bring the jobless rate down from 10 percent in 2009 to 8.2 percent in March, although many of the unemployed have become so demoralized that they have left the formal labor force.

If some economists are right to believe the natural unemployment rate is as high as 7 percent, then the Fed could hit a wall before long and need to tighten monetary policy.

Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota - one of the policymakers at the Fed who suggests rates will have to rise sooner than later - thinks last year's rise in inflation was a sign the Fed is approaching that wall.

"There's a point at which it gets to be very costly in terms of how much inflation you'd have to generate in order to get a reduction in unemployment," Kocherlakota said last month.

Such predictions are grim for construction workers like Mfthel, 36, who most days sits on a plastic crate at an intersection in Brooklyn, New York, waiting for casual work - as he has done most days since the recession hammered his industry.

Mfthel, who declined to give his family name, and some of the other dozen men waiting on the street corner with tools and steel-toe boots said they had permanent jobs before the construction boom ended. Now they can expect $7 to $10 an hour for repairing buildings, moving furniture and paving driveways.

"Now they don't come or they don't pay enough," he said. "You can't do much with 20 bucks."

(Additional reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Frances Kerry)

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Reuters: Economic News: Despite recovery, U.S. public employees face more layoffs

Reuters: Economic News
Reuters.com is your source for breaking news, business, financial and investing news, including personal finance and stocks. Reuters is the leading global provider of news, financial information and technology solutions to the world's media, financial institutions, businesses and individuals. // via fulltextrssfeed.com
Despite recovery, U.S. public employees face more layoffs
Apr 8th 2012, 11:13

By Lisa Lambert

Sun Apr 8, 2012 7:13am EDT

(Reuters) - Since 2009, the city of Chesapeake, tucked up against the Great Dismal Swamp in southern Virginia, has cut its workforce twice. This summer, nearly three years after the recession ended, the city of 222,209 has plans for a third round of layoffs.

"We're not seeing the recovery we want to see," said Budget Director Steven Jenkins, who is hoping many of the 20 people will move into other jobs.

The city's revenues are still feeling the concussions from the housing market downturn, which started in 2006, even as overall growth in the United States has improved.

"We are heavily reliant on the residential real estate market," said Jenkins. In a recent assessment the average property value dropped 3.7 percent, which hits property taxes, and hurts government budgets. "The reassessment we just had was as big as any we've seen since the recession started."

While Friday's report of weak growth in U.S. March payrolls raised concerns about the pace of private-sector hiring, local government jobs remain a drag on the recovery, one that is not anticipated to end soon.

State and local governments for a time were able to shield public safety and education workforces from harmful cuts as the recession deepened. The 2009 federal stimulus fund helped offset lost tax revenue, but that money is gone.

Now, many cities and counties nationwide are facing the same dilemma as Chesapeake. Squeezed by depressed property tax revenues and cuts in state aid, they are chipping away at their workforces.

The result? The last three years of job losses at the state and local government level has been the most dramatic since Labor Department records began in 1955, according to a Reuters analysis.

Public-sector employees tended to have more job security, which in some ways helps during weak economic climates, as their steady demand for goods and services spread through the economy. The recent trend, conversely, can make things worse.

"If public-sector employment had grown since June 2009 by the average amount it grew in the three previous recoveries (2.8 percent) instead of shrinking by 2.5 percent, there would be 1.2 million more public-sector jobs in the U.S. economy today," said the Economic Policy Institute in a recent report, which included federal employees in the calculation.

Local governments have cut 482,000 jobs since the beginning of 2009. They added jobs in just two months since 2011 started. Previously, states only had two consecutive years of layoffs, 1995 and 1996, when they scrapped about 57,000 jobs, or about one-third of the 150,000 cut since the beginning of 2009.

"The current recovery is the only one that has seen public-sector losses over its first 31 months," the report said.

As of March, 14.1 million people worked for local governments and 5.1 million for states. Public employees outnumber those in manufacturing, construction, and other areas typically considered engines of the economy.

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Graphic on job loss rate link.reuters.com/fuc57s

Graphic on job loss span link.reuters.com/duc57s

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HIT BY HOUSING, LOW DEMAND

Three weeks ago, firefighters in Scranton, Pennsylvania, took 10 minutes to respond to a fire, instead of the usual four minutes or less. Lighter staffing was blamed, as the city had laid off 29 firefighters in January. "We had been telling them ... there's a catastrophe that's going to happen here," said John J. Judge IV, president of the International Association of Fire Fighters Local 60. After the delay, 12 of the firefighters were rehired, but that's still a reduction of 17 workers.

In March, local governments shed 3,000 jobs after gaining 1,000 in February, according to the Labor Department. State governments added 2,000 jobs. However, states employ 39,000 fewer people than a year ago, and the slight recent improvement is unlikely to be confirmed.

"The rate of decline is slower," said Christopher Hoene, research director at the National League of Cities. "But I don't think the curve is shifting upward. I don't think we're going to see hiring in the local government sector."

Meanwhile, the private sector is creating jobs. Friday's employment report showed private payrolls gained 121,000 jobs in March, while public payrolls lost 1,000.

Moody's expects states to lose at least another 15,000 jobs through 2012 and local governments between 150,000 and 175,000.

"It's going to continue to be a drag on overall employment," said Moody's Investors Services Economist Daniel White.

STATES VS. LOCALS

Des Moines, Iowa, weathered the recession better than many other cities. Its unemployment rate is 6.1 percent, more than two percentage points below the national average.

Nonetheless, it recently eliminated more than 40 full-time positions after property valuations dropped 3.5 percent. It too wants to put those workers into other jobs, said Deputy City Manager Allen McKinley, a former finance director and budget officer for the Iowa capital.

Des Moines also has fewer dollars to spend as the state recently mandated bigger contributions to police and fire pensions, McKinley said.

As public pensions attempt to close total shortfalls of at least $600 billion, many state and local governments are having to pitch in more money to retirement systems, taking dollars away from other departments. Also, with fewer employees on the payrolls, the smaller the worker contributions to pension systems that must send retirees fixed amounts each month.

A new threat has emerged in Iowa. Both parties in the legislature, along with the governor, hope to boost growth by cutting commercial property taxes, which make up around half of Des Moines revenues, by about 40 percent. Cities across the state are protesting the three proposals.

All states except Vermont must end their fiscal years with balanced budgets.

For its upcoming fiscal year, Florida cut 4,000 state jobs and reduced higher education and healthcare funds. Spending cuts in the $70 billion budget are so bad that Palm Beach County Clerk and Comptroller Sharon Bock said constituents might sue.

Florida's new budget means Bock must find $2.5 million in savings and still "keep the courts open," she said.

The office has already laid off 111 employees to cope with four years of budget cuts. Now, it will not fill 40 vacancies or replace departing employees - its annual turnover rate is about 10 percent. The staff size is currently around 430 people.

The worker shortage will result in 10 hours of backlog each week, Bock said.

"Here is the dilemma that I am in: I take an oath as a constitutional officer to provide services to the public," she said about her duties, which include keeping vital records and operating court systems.

"Do I get sued by the public because I can't open a branch office or because I have to close one day a week? Or do I lay off people, and end up in the same scenario?"

(Reporting By Lisa Lambert, Editing Tiziana Barghini)

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Friday, April 6, 2012

Reuters: Economic News: Ranks of America's working poor grew in 2010

Reuters: Economic News
Reuters.com is your source for breaking news, business, financial and investing news, including personal finance and stocks. Reuters is the leading global provider of news, financial information and technology solutions to the world's media, financial institutions, businesses and individuals. // via fulltextrssfeed.com
Ranks of America's working poor grew in 2010
Apr 6th 2012, 21:44

WASHINGTON | Fri Apr 6, 2012 5:44pm EDT

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of working Americans earning so little they lived in poverty reached 7.2 percent of the labor force in 2010, the highest level in at least two decades, the government said on Friday.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics counted 7.6 percent of women among the working poor, compared to 6.7 percent of men. In 2009, the working poor rate was 7 percent.

Education made a huge difference. Among workers who had not graduated from high school, 21.4 percent lived below the official poverty line against only 2.1 percent of those with a university degree. The highest rate was amongst the unemployed looking for work during the year at 35.1 percent.

The official poverty line in 2010 was an annual income of $10,830 for a single person and $22,050 for a family of four.

Overall, the United States had 46.2 million people living in poverty that year, or 15.1 percent of the population o f all ages. The working poor totaled 10.5 million.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics conducted a special survey in 2011 which it is used to calculate the figures, based on those who were in the labor force for at least 27 weeks either working or looking for work.

The rate for working poor was 5.5 percent in 1987, the furthest back that the BLS included in its report, and in 1999 it fell below 5 percent.

(Reporting by Stella Dawson, Editing by Jackie Frank)

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Reuters: Economic News: Economic growth gauge rises in latest week: ECRI

Reuters: Economic News
Reuters.com is your source for breaking news, business, financial and investing news, including personal finance and stocks. Reuters is the leading global provider of news, financial information and technology solutions to the world's media, financial institutions, businesses and individuals. // via fulltextrssfeed.com
Economic growth gauge rises in latest week: ECRI
Apr 6th 2012, 14:51

NEW YORK | Fri Apr 6, 2012 10:51am EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A measure of future economic growth rose in the latest week, as did the growth rate on an annualized basis, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 126.5 in the week ended March 30 from 125.8 the previous week.

The index's annualized growth rate rose to 1.0 percent from 0.0 percent a week earlier.

It was the highest level for the index since August 5 and the highest level for the growth rate since August 12, according to ECRI.

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Thursday, April 5, 2012

Reuters: Economic News: U.S. likely added over 200,000 jobs in March for 4th month

Reuters: Economic News
Reuters.com is your source for breaking news, business, financial and investing news, including personal finance and stocks. Reuters is the leading global provider of news, financial information and technology solutions to the world's media, financial institutions, businesses and individuals. // via fulltextrssfeed.com
U.S. likely added over 200,000 jobs in March for 4th month
Apr 6th 2012, 04:15

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON | Fri Apr 6, 2012 12:15am EDT

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. payrolls likely rose by more than 200,000 for the fourth straight month in March, suggesting the economy is steadily healing and needs no extra monetary policy support from the Federal Reserve for now.

That would mark the longest stretch of increases of more than 200,000 per month in non-farm payrolls since 1999. The unemployment rate is seen holding steady though at a three-year low of 8.3 percent for a third month in a row.

Employers likely added 203,000 new jobs in March, according to a Reuters consensus survey of economists, down a little from 227,000 in February when mild winter weather may have provided a lift to seasonal hiring.

The U.S. Labor Department will release the March employment report on Friday at 8:30 a.m. EST (1230 GMT).

"The economy is close to a self-sustaining expansion," said Gus Faucher, senior economist at PNC Financial Services in Pittsburgh.

"It will take a few more months of good employment numbers to confirm that the labor market is finally on its way to persistently better job opportunities."

A fourth successive month of healthy employment gains could help President Barack Obama who faces re-election in November.

Even though job growth has been more than 200,000 per month since December and the unemployment rate fallen from 9.1 percent in August, it remains a little above the level when Obama took office.

A big rise in payrolls could push the jobless rate up even further though, or at least keep the rate above 8.0 percent through the rest of this year, by luring unemployed Americans who had given up the search for work back into the labor force.

The economy has lost about 5.3 million jobs since the start of the 2007-09 recession. At the recent pace of growth, those jobs will not be recouped before early 2014.

The painfully slow recovery in the labor market is a concern for Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke who is keeping open the option of further monetary policy support for the economy if the unemployment rate remains stubbornly high.

But the minutes of the Fed's March policy meeting released this week showed policymakers seeing a broadening of the economic recovery, leaving them slightly less inclined to launch a third round of bond purchases, known as quantitative easing, to spur growth.

"The key challenge will be determining whether the economic recovery has generated sufficient momentum to obviate the need for further monetary policy support," said Millan Mulraine, senior macro strategist at TD Securities in New York.

"With the economy continuing to build on the gains of the last quarter the risks of more policy accommodation from the Fed has diminished."

LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT A PROBLEM

The private sector is expected to have added 218,000 new positions in March, while government layoffs likely continued for a seventh straight month though at a slower pace.

Manufacturing likely enjoyed another month of strong job gains, helped by carmakers trying to meet pent-up demand for motor vehicles. Factory jobs increased by 83,000 in the first two months of the year.

Construction hiring surprised by falling 13,000 in February despite warm weather and could see a rebound in March. Further gains in mining are likely as exploration expands for inland gas.

In the huge service sectors, gains are expected in healthcare, professional and business services, as well as temporary help categories, in line with recent trends.

The sturdy gains in manufacturing and professional and business services employment should help to lift average hourly earnings by 0.2 percent and partially counter the notion that most the new jobs being created pay low wages.

The workweek is seen steady at a 3-1/2 year high of 34.5 hours for a fourth straight month.

While the unemployment rate has dropped significantly, long-term unemployment remains stubbornly high and 23.5 million Americans are either out of work or underemployed.

As long as gross domestic product growth remains sluggish employment growth is likely to remain moderate, keeping alive the prospect for further Fed stimulative measures. GDP growth is seen around 2.0 percent annualized in the first quarter 2012 down from 3.0 percent rate in the October-December period.

"The potential is still there for more quantitative easing, but not in April," said Bob Baur, chief global economist at Principal Global Investors in Des Moines, Iowa.

"If the Fed sees growth slow and we see a down tick in the jobs numbers, then I don't think it's unreasonable to expect the Fed might do its quantitative easing in June."

(Reporting By Lucia Mutikani; editing by Stella Dawson)

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Reuters: Economic News: U.S. online jobs index flat at 143 in March

Reuters: Economic News
Reuters.com is your source for breaking news, business, financial and investing news, including personal finance and stocks. Reuters is the leading global provider of news, financial information and technology solutions to the world's media, financial institutions, businesses and individuals. // via fulltextrssfeed.com
U.S. online jobs index flat at 143 in March
Apr 6th 2012, 04:14

Fri Apr 6, 2012 12:14am EDT

(Reuters) - A monthly gauge of online labor demand in the United States held steady in March, with transportation and retail registering strong growth, the operator of a job search website said on Friday.

Monster Worldwide Inc (MWW.N), an online careers and recruiting firm, said its employment index was unchanged from February at 143. The index was up 5 percent from a year earlier.

The index showed annual growth in 16 of the 20 industries and 20 of the 23 occupations monitored last month.

The report was another look at the jobs market ahead of the government's non-farm payrolls report later on Friday. Economists, on average, expect the report to show that the economy added 203,000 jobs in March, according to a Reuters poll.

The Monster Employment index is a monthly analysis based on a selection of corporate career sites and job boards. The margin of error is approximately plus or minus 1 percent.

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